Athena Global ETF- Feb 13 2018 Update

Athena Global Tactical ETFs Update

With recent market volatility, we have advisors and clients asking about potential position changes to our Global Tactical ETFs portfolio. Tactical managers use different approaches including economic conditions, momentum and valuation. These signals can be short, intermediate or long-term in nature. We use longer-term deep behavioral currents and don’t react to short-term market volatility or drawdowns. The portfolio will typically hold positions for 6-9 months.

We are currently long the S&P 500 and will maintain our position until we re-evaluate our data again in early March. Our market barometers are updated monthly and continue to have expected returns in the normal range of 10% annualized. While the portfolio can move 100% to cash, this usually occurs only in catastrophic scenarios where our barometers sustain dramatic deterioration over time. We rely on our methodology to take the emotions out of the process and this approach has served us well.

The table below provides some perspective on our current S&P 500 position as of 02/09/2018 versus the average of all portfolio positions since inception in September 2010. Our current drawdown is in-line with the average drawdown of our historical positions and that of our benchmark.

 

 

Portfolio performance is Net of Fees.  Portfolio and Benchmark Returns and Drawdowns are not annualized.
^ Benchmark is MSCI ACWI NR Index  View Full Portfolio Disclosures

The current economic, fundamental and behavioral indicators continue to remain solid.  Please reference our monthly Market View.   For suggestions on helping clients, please refer to our Behavioral Advisor Materials.  Sometimes it is just as important to not trade and stay invested through the volatility and drawdowns as it is to exit the market.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Dave Stock
(917) 771-1437
david.stock@athenainvest.com

Steve Bogosian
(314) 562-2223
steve.bogosian@athenainvest.com

Reflections on recent volatility

The technical details which appear to have created significant selling last week began in the options market after-hours on Friday, February 3rd and are quite extraordinary. For those who are interested in taking a deeper dive, simply Google “what happened to XIV” and you will learn quite a bit about trading volatility. Best we can tell, the unwinding of this particular trade played a significant role in taking what would have just been a bad day in the market to seeing equity indexes enter into “correction territory” – a 10% pullback from recent highs – in 4 days.

Corrections should be seen as a healthy resetting of valuations. They should also remind us to take a look at the risks inherent in any investment strategy – the risk of loss.
Over the past year, Axxcess has been working on the development of a new set of tools to help monitor portfolio risk. The development of these tools has allowed our Advisor’s to “stress test” portfolios against a variety of technical, policy-driven, and economic scenarios.
What is unique about these tools is how they illustrate the potential impact risks can have on both current portfolios and proposed strategies by using historical research and analysis on how economic indicators are correlated. The most important outcome is an understanding of each portfolios’ sensitivity to market movements and the potential sensitivity to loss. Measuring this becomes extremely useful when coupled with an understanding of your sensitivity to loss.
How do we do that? We have created a risk tolerance survey and incorporated a scoring methodology that evaluates your sensitivity to loss. Instead of outputting only a score, our methodology creates a measure of this risk in percentage terms. For example, a conservative investor score translates to a portfolio with a potential loss exposure of 10% or less.
We have highlighted trending scenarios here.
Risk Tolerance is required to be revisited with clients at least annually. A number of things can change your Risk Tolerance Score: job change, income, age, or changes in life circumstances such as the birth of a child, death, divorce, and/or sale or acquisition of a business or real estate, etc.  It is important to make sure that your investment risk tolerance matches your portfolio allocations when selecting your investments.
We have developed a secure, online form that will score and record your responses in lieu of sending out a paper questionnaire.

Looking Ahead

2018 has begun with strong economic growth. GDP as forecasted is expected to rise more 4% in the first quarter. More than 85% of companies in the S and P 500 beat earnings expectations. Wage growth increased 2.9% over the past year.  With corporate tax reform becoming law, the financial health of US businesses should continue to improve.
However, with strong future expectations, comes inflation. With inflation comes higher borrowing costs. Inflation has been benign for several years, and as we see new policy implemented,  both stock and bond markets will need to digest new data. In short, you should expect more volatility in 2018.  Historically the equity markets have been roughly twice as volatile as they were in 2017. Sudden spikes give the financial media a lot of material to focus on. Dealing with volatility can be unnerving at times, but it is a more normal behavior of markets.

3D Printing: The Future Of Manufacturing

Though it took several decades to really catch on, once factories switched from steam power to electrical power, the manufacturing world exploded. Productivity improved, wages improved, and the entire manufacturing landscape was changed for the better. Wouldn’t it have been awesome to have been an investor who got into electricity before everything boomed?

It’s too late to get in on the ground floor for electricity, but the same opportunity is presenting itself once more: 3D printing. 3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing, is simply the process of building objects layer-by-layer instead of using a mold or removing material from a larger block. This opens the door for radically new part architectures, decreased costs, reduced weight, and shorter time to production for manufacturers.

3D printing could completely revolutionize the manufacturing industry just as electricity did a century ago. With the constant pressure to cut cost and gain efficiencies, this is the answer they are looking for. It can drastically cut cost while enhancing accuracy, speed, and customization. As printer capabilities and materials improve and innovation continues, more and more companies will recognize the possibilities and begin to use it.

The long-term growth potential is enormous, and we’ve already seen the beginning. The 3D printing sector took 20 years to reach a market value of $1 billion. It took only five years to double that and reach $2 billion. Analysts believe that in the next ten years 3D printing will grow 400%.

If you want to get in on the ground floor of 3D printing, it’s not too late. Though things are starting to pick up, as with most disruptive technologies it takes time. We are in the adjustment period when it has not yet been widely adopted, so there is still amazing growth opportunity for investors.

As an investment manager, I look beyond the S&P 500 to bring my clients truly unique opportunities. 3D printing is one of them. The possibilities for investment in the 3D printing sector excite me and I’m eager to bring them to my clients. If you want to get in on an innovative technology that could change the world, call me at 858.217.5347 for a complimentary consultation where we can discuss how 3D printing would fit into your portfolio.

About Kevin

Kevin Manzo is a Financial Advisor with Axxcess Wealth Management. Kevin’s services are especially valuable to business owners, high-income and high-net-worth professionals and their families. After 12 successful years as a portfolio manager and advisor Kevin has the knowledge and experience to help clients protect what they’ve worked for, enjoy a comfortable retirement, and leave the legacy they choose for their heirs. Along with his Bachelor’s of Business Administration degree in Finance from Chapman University, he also holds the Accredited Investment Fiduciary® credential, signifying his commitment to upholding a high level of fiduciary care for his clients. Based in Fullerton, California, he serves families and business owners throughout North Orange County and Los Angeles. Learn more by connecting with Kevin on LinkedIn.

What I Do and How I Can Help

For most people, it’s hard to find the time and resources to build and manage their assets confidently. It can be even harder to know how to integrate your family’s values and wealth management goals into your portfolio and financial strategies and stay on track for the long-term.

With more than 12 years of experience as a portfolio manager and financial advisor, I aim to use my knowledge and experience to help my clients protect what they’ve worked for, pursue their ideal retirement, and leave the legacy they envision for their heirs.

I strive to serve as a trusted advisor with whom people feel at ease talking about their financial concerns and retirement dreams. Along with instilling a sense of confidence, my goal is to provide them a comprehensive strategy that incorporates their objectives and outlines how they can transition from where they are today to where they want to be in the future.

What I Do

Axxcess Wealth Management is an independent firm serving as a strategic advisor to business owners, family offices, and high net worth investors. Our firm’s philosophy is to integrate third-party investment managers alongside real estate, private equity, and hedged investments to create a unique open investment platform.

As an independent firm, I have the ability to provide a comprehensive range of wealth management services. And with our open architecture Axxcess Platform, I can bring the latest in financial technology to my clients, along with offering access to top-tier managers, low-cost ETFs, and forward-thinking investable themes in disruptive innovation.

One of the unique elements is the investment opportunities on which I focus. As a member of the Axxcess Wealth Management Investment Oversight Committee, I’m responsible for monitoring current investments and spearheading client investment in robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence. I seek to do things differently, focusing on managing money innovatively by searching for unique investment opportunities, such as funds that invest in human genome sequencing, robotics, 3D printing and other advancements within science and technology. By evaluating innovative investment opportunities, I hope clients can feel more excited about their portfolios and future financial plans.

Who I Serve

While I work with a diverse range of clients, a majority of them are affluent families, working professionals, high net worth investors, and business owners. After working hard to build their wealth, they want to grow and preserve their wealth throughout life as they prepare for retirement and determine the legacy they seek to leave.

By providing comprehensive services and maintaining a high-touch and personalized experience, I seek to serve as my clients’ most trusted financial consultant and help them make smart decisions with their money and work toward their personal definition of financial independence. Beyond the higher level of knowledge they gain, I believe clients choose to work with me because of the strong relationship I aim to build with them and the highly customized approach I take with their wealth management needs.

My Goal for You

Through a hands-on approach and dynamic process, I hope my clients gain an awareness of how improved portfolio performance through reduced portfolio risk, elimination of asset class bias, and significant cost savings benefits the sustainability of their wealth.

Whether you are looking for a tactical strategy that can help your portfolio dynamically adjust to changing market conditions or an equity income strategy that can deliver a fixed income approach to equity investing, I can construct, implement, and monitor a customized solution for you. If you’re interested in learning more about how I may be able to help you, contact me for a complimentary consultation by calling 858.217.5347.

About Kevin

Kevin Manzo is a Financial Advisor with Axxcess Wealth Management. Kevin’s services are especially valuable to business owners, high-income and high-net-worth professionals and their families. After 12 successful years as a portfolio manager and advisor Kevin has the knowledge and experience to help clients protect what they’ve worked for, enjoy a comfortable retirement, and leave the legacy they choose for their heirs. Along with his Bachelor’s of Business Administration degree in Finance from Chapman University, he also holds the Accredited Investment Fiduciary® credential, signifying his commitment to upholding a high level of fiduciary care for his clients. Based in Fullerton, California, he serves families and business owners throughout North Orange County and Los Angeles. Learn more by connecting with Kevin on LinkedIn.

Stress Test Scenarios

Why I Became a Financial Advisor

I’m a firm believer that so much in life is learned in the journey. I’ve experienced this myself throughout my career as a financial advisor, and I’ve seen it occur in many of my clients’ lives.

My financial advisor journey started when I graduated from college. While I didn’t know exactly where my finance degree would lead me, I did know that I wanted a career that allowed me to take care of people and look after them. Combining this passion with my interest in finance, I started my career as a portfolio manager at Powers Capital, where I focused on building and managing client investment portfolios.

After several years with Powers Capital, I wanted to expand into more comprehensive wealth management and joined C.K. Cooper & Company with a chance to build out a new Private Client Department. During my years at this firm, I had the opportunity to manage all aspects of wealth management for clients, including estate planning, investment management, and retirement planning.

It was here that I realized that I had the opportunity to build strong and long-lasting relationships with people and help guide them toward their financial goals. I knew that I wanted to provide objective guidance to my clients without being tied to proprietary products. I believed the best way I could help my clients was without any limitations from companies, sales quotas, or biases.

In 2010, I joined Axxcess Wealth to do just this.

My Career Today

As a Registered Investment Advisory firm, Axxcess Wealth allows me to serve my clients as an independent advisor who is able to provide them best of breed resources. As the Axxcess Platform is open architecture, it allows for my clients to have access to top-tier managers, low-cost ETFs, and forward thinking investable themes in disruptive innovation. I’m interested in and excited about novel investment opportunities for high net worth clients who are excited about science, technology, and the future.

Through my services and access to a wide range of resources, I’m not only providing financial and investment advice, but also clear and unbiased guidance regarding their needs and concerns. I thoroughly enjoy interacting directly with each and every client as we work together to help them work toward their financial goals.

Doing What I Love

Throughout my career, I’ve built strong relationships with so many incredible individuals and families. I am relentless in my commitment to genuinely understand every client’s unique needs and help them pursue their goals through a highly custom approach. I like to think that my clients know how genuinely concerned about and interested I am in their future.

As someone who’s passionate about what I do, there’s nothing more fulfilling than helping clients feel excited about their portfolios and future financial plans. One of the reasons why I enjoy focusing on managing money innovatively is because I think it allows clients to feel more connected with their investments and feel it has a purpose.

I look forward to helping people protect and grow their wealth for many years to come. If you’re interested in learning more about how I may be able to help you, I encourage you to reach out to me for a complimentary consultation by calling 858.217.5347.

About Kevin

Kevin Manzo is a Financial Advisor with Axxcess Wealth Management. Kevin’s services are especially valuable to business owners, high-income and high-net-worth professionals and their families. After 12 successful years as a portfolio manager and advisor Kevin has the knowledge and experience to help clients protect what they’ve worked for, enjoy a comfortable retirement, and leave the legacy they choose for their heirs. Along with his Bachelor’s of Business Administration degree in Finance from Chapman University, he also holds the Accredited Investment Fiduciary® credential, signifying his commitment to upholding a high level of fiduciary care for his clients. Based in Fullerton, California, he serves families and business owners throughout North Orange County and Los Angeles. Learn more by connecting with Kevin on LinkedIn.